but their views vary widely regarding how it will unfold and what excess mortality fi gures will result. Although analyses of past pandemics provide an insight into possible future scenarios, a simple extrapolation of statistics can be highly misleading. However, the 1918 Spanish fl u is often used as a basis for projecting the possible impact of a severe pandemic.
As recent terrorist activities in major cities - notably, the 11 September 2001 attacks in the United States - have made strikingly clear, terrorism has developed into a threat that affects every aspect of society and knows no national boundaries. Although there is no internationally binding defi nition of terrorism, some aspects can be agreed on: it seeks to cause human suffering, to instil widespread fear, and to disrupt life and business. The insurance industry has responded to this evolving hazard, and is doing all in its power to manage the terrorism risk.
The Chief Risk Officer (CRO) Forum's Emerging Risk Initiative is committed to continuously improving risk management. This paper advocates as best practice a process whereby insurers and reinsurers re-examine their assumptions about frequency, severity, loss trends and how the risks in their portfolios are interconnected and generally stress test their internal processes for hitherto "unthinkable" dimensions of risks. The paper seeks to address rating agencies, analysts, governments, regulators, intermediaries and risk modelling firms alike. This study is non-binding and for reference purposes only.
